Introduction to Expat Debate
0:05 Hey YouTube, Alex here. Today I want to talk about a topic they don't want you to leave. So there's this debate in a number of, you could say, expat communities: Do they want us to leave? Do they want to prevent us from leaving? I'm going to take the side of the debate where they want you to leave, or they don't care if you leave your home country. I'm of course an American, so I'm a bit US-centric. I just want to preface this video with that because you may be from a different country, and some of these points may be less relevant to you, some maybe more relevant to you. So without further ado, let's get into it.
Inflation and Economic Output
0:44 The first reason as to why they don't care if you leave is that it actually reduces inflation. It pulls dollars out of the system, so there are fewer dollars competing for resources. There's less demand for food, less demand for shelter, less demand for transportation. They would rather have younger workers willing to work for less pay, putting demand on this infrastructure, because they get more bang for their buck out of these people economically. For example, a young worker simply doesn't put the same demand on the healthcare system that an older worker places on that same system. And so they're always evaluating the population for input versus output, and the powers that be want to minimize input and maximize output.
1:30 The United States in particular is run like a business, and the leadership of every single corporation or business is thinking about what do we put in and what are we getting out? What is it that costs us money, and what is the product that we put out? When they think of older retired people who are going to be net takers from the system at that age, I hear from friends all the time they want to raise the Social Security limit, they want to dismantle certain social programs. A lot of this is to try to save money.
2:01 This is particularly true for veterans. I spoke with a veteran friend recently; the Veterans Administration is saving something like $30 to $40,000 per year in benefits and payouts and healthcare and different kinds of services. The veterans are owed in return for their contributions and sacrifices. We see this with the United Health Care situation and the denial of claims. They want you to pay into the systems and then not withdraw from the system. That's why people get a benefit for delaying their withdrawal. What the system is hoping is that these people won't make it until their withdrawal date. The calculation is cumulatively that they'll pay out less if people delay their date of withdrawals.
2:50 Why would they care about retaining people who are not at their economic output peak, but are at their peak in terms of demand on resources? Why do you think the majority of people coming are young? This idea, though, that they don't want you to leave is easily disproven in the sense that if they really didn't want people to leave, they would just make it harder for people to leave. They would just make getting a passport harder; they'd make it more difficult; they'd have some kind of competency test like they do for their driver's license, which maybe they should have. Maybe they should have a competency test for a passport. That would probably prevent issues.
3:31 But yeah, I mean, it wouldn't be so easy to get a passport if preventing people from leaving was a goal for American leadership. Now, keep an eye out for a video contradicting the sentiment that I express in this video. I think just as good a case can be made for they don't care if you leave as they don't want you to leave. Personally, I think the future of the US is rich people and their servants, but that's a different discussion for a different day. Personally, I lean toward they don't care. I think it would just be a lot harder to leave the US if they didn't want people to do so.
4:04 There's ways that they could set things up to make it a lot harder to leave. They could make the passport $1,000; they could make you have to get a permit; they could make you have to jump through any number of hoops. And as it stands, it's fairly easy to leave. I think most people with professional jobs could afford to take an international vacation. Business owner, same deal. The barrier to entry has gone down in proportion to incomes. International travel in particular has come down a lot in relation to incomes.
Reduced Burden on Systems
4:42 The next point is that you don't put a burden on the healthcare system, the housing system, the infrastructure in general. Your usage of these systems takes up resources. For these facilities to have them occupying limited real estate, obviously with food, it takes money to produce the food, it takes money to store the food, it takes resources to cook and prepare the food. And then you've got plumbers, and it's not free to sustain a population in terms of time and effort and all of those important things that we need to live, not just to get ahead, but just to exist.
5:23 Also, you don't need a job. Americans are used to a certain standard of living and have to be productive to attain or maintain that standard of living. Most Americans are not willing to do very basic jobs past their teenage years. Most people don't want to pick fruit; most people do not want to clean toilets; most people do not want to wash dishes. That's the job I did; I was a dishwasher when I was in high school. Most people don't want to do these jobs for very long, and they're also not sustainable, especially as they get older. They have more financial responsibilities; they may have families, although that's less and less the case these days. They have obligations they have to meet financially that they are not able to meet with a normal job.
6:08 So the society has to come up with jobs that are higher value-add such that those people don't lose it. I've heard some people talk about social instability; it's going to come as a consequence of there being fewer what you could call elite-level jobs available, jobs in finance, jobs in technology, which have taken a hit. Layoffs are still ongoing; a lot of people have lost jobs. I lost my job in summer of 2023. There's a lot of consolidation in those industries.
Continued Taxation Abroad
6:39 Point number three is that taxation still applies. The US is one of only two countries that taxes its citizens abroad. And so they're still going to be able to collect their taxes unless you were to renounce your citizenship, which most people are not willing to do because the downsides outweigh the benefits for most people. People, they're still going to get their money regardless of where you live, whether you're in Timbuktu or you're in Thailand. They're still going to get paid their tax revenue. All the Americans I know still fulfill their tax obligations; they still pay their taxes; they file their taxes every year. I do the same thing; I don't know anybody that doesn't do that, and I think that will continue for the foreseeable future.
7:27 I haven't heard of the US leadership making any plans or announcements about changing that. I don't see it happening. I think that will stay the same. With filing online, it's easier than ever. You don't have to necessarily go and see a CPA, especially if you've got a simple return. You can use TurboTax, and I'll throw a link to TurboTax down in the description below if you are looking to file early. I know it's just January, but I know some people will still want to file now at this point.
7:59 With the amount of money printing, I think that taxation, more so than to raise revenues, is more designed to just kind of suck money out of the system, reduce inflation, pull money out of the system, more so than, 'Hey, we're going to pay for this' or, 'Hey, we're going to pay for that.' You can see with the substantial national debt, I don't see Americans being able to pay off that national debt anytime soon through taxation alone. I mean, you'd have to make massive changes to the system to be able to restructure things. You'd have to cut a lot of spending; you'd have to raise taxes substantially.
8:34 Tax hikes are never popular, and cutting spending is also not very popular. Like, let's say you're an expat living overseas, living from the proceeds of a business back in the States. Then, even if you don't personally pay taxes, your employees will pay taxes. So they will actually have to pay taxes on their income; they will have to pay taxes on their purchases if they're in a state with sales tax. Like the state I'm from produces the majority of its revenue through sales tax. So even if you personally are not paying the taxes, that doesn't mean somebody else is not paying the taxes to some extent on your behalf.
9:15 I don't know if that framing exactly makes sense, but finally, there is the hidden tax of inflation, which the US exports through the Petro dollar. I'm not going to get into that too much in this video, only to say that the US supplies much of the world with oil, and there are business agreements in place that other countries have to purchase US dollars to purchase that oil. And the US, being the world reserve currency, they can print those dollars at will. If you live overseas long enough, you'll notice inflation is not limited to the US. You'll also notice this if you make multiple trips overseas. I definitely noticed an increase in prices here in Southeast Asia.
Modern Military Needs
9:56 Point number four is the military. And I hear a couple of critiques: 'Oh, they might institute a draft soon.' I doubt that. And the number two critique I hear a lot is, 'Oh, we have this woke military now.' And neither takes into consideration. Now, of course, I'm a layman, so take this with a grain of salt, although I've run this idea or these thoughts by friends of mine who are veterans. The US military in 2024 is not fighting tons of boots-on-the-ground style conflicts. Much of the conflicts are won through technology, through drone technology. Drones are becoming a bigger and bigger thing for the US military every single year. None of this is like private information; this isn't like...
10:43 This isn't like inside or Intel or something you can look up news articles. I happen to own some shares in defense companies. And if you're thinking, 'Oh, the woke military,' they don't really need personnel to the same extent that they did in the past to go and be foot soldiers. They need people to operate technology, they need people to pilot drones, they need people who are good at operating technology, transporting technology, repairing technology, making technology more efficient.
11:21 Engineers, that kind of personnel, much more so than they need GI Joe to be running around on the battlefield. And the beautiful thing about technology is it's safer. We don't have to risk people's well-being in the same way that we did before. Drone technology, we have ways of asserting dominance that are much safer and more cost-effective.
11:40 I mean, benefits for military personnel are expensive. I know because my grandfather was career military. They paid out tons of money to my family in benefits and healthcare and pensions. You have no idea how much my family has benefited financially from his service to the United States.
12:07 But these critiques of a woke military are really just copium to deal with the fact that we have a lot of extra Americans, and it's not readily apparent how our society or how our system can deal with them in a humane way. We just don't have the need in the context of a draft situation. Even if there was a draft, retired expats would be the last people to be drafted, just because of health and age concerns.
12:38 If you can't tell, I'm not a fan of doomsday predictions. It's Peter Schiff that successfully predicted 99% of the last three recessions or market downturns, the gold bug guy. The fifth and final point here is that immigration is a substitute when you have a declining population.
Immigration as Population Substitute
13:01 You could say the US-born population has been in decline for decades now, really. A lot of people point at the oil shock of 1971 as being the pivotal factor where birth rates started to decline because there was a disruption in the oil supply. The result of that was that the price of oil went up, and that everything that relies on oil to be transported also went up in price.
13:30 And so that was where you really saw a spike in cost of living. You also hear the phrase stagflation being applied to the '70s. So cost of living went up, but economic growth or productivity did not go up. There's also the element of Nixon taking the country off the gold standard, and then also the Hart-Celler Act of 1965, where immigration was basically opened up wide open.
13:59 The result of this is that the leadership doesn't really need people to have kids in the way that they used to. I know one time there was discussion that there would be overpopulation. Now, American leadership is always talking about there being underpopulation, and that the solution for that is more immigration. So that's where I think there's not really a major concern.
14:20 It's like, 'Oh, okay, expat, you can leave. It's not really a big deal. We'll just bring more people in.' They don't want things to be too chaotic, so now they're clamping down on it. But immigration is kind of like inflation, and then it doesn't ever reverse, right? So like, 'Oh, we're getting a handle on inflation,' but the prices are sticky. It's not like the prices are coming back down.
14:44 Similarly, you know, there's not really much that can be done when it comes to millions and millions of people entering the country. Now, I'm not here to say that I'm anti-immigrant or pro-immigrant. That's beside the point. More so that that's the solution that leadership has decided on. That's why they don't care if people leave.
15:04 It's like, 'Oh, okay, you want to leave when you've passed your working prime? In turn, we can get somebody who's maybe 20, 22, that will be able to work a lot harder.' And is also, in some cases, coming from an impoverished background where they are really desperate to earn that money. They are willing to put up with conditions that the American people are not willing to put up with.
15:31 And they'll do it for lower wages, and they're far enough away from retirement that their social security burden is going to become some other leadership's problem, right? We don't have to worry about that. They're going to retire in 40 years. You know, some of these politicians that are octogenarians, they're not really concerned about what happens in 40 years to the United States.
15:49 All they care about is the next election cycle, and if they can win that. It really makes no difference about the election cycle or the state of the country decades from now. The American people aren't really looked at as individually important anymore. They're more like economic agents and participants in a global economy, much more so than a people with any common ground or anything really tying them together.
16:18 So let me know what you think down in the comments section below. Do you agree with these sentiments? Do you disagree with these sentiments? It's a beautiful sunny day here in the Philippines. I wish you were here. If you're not here right now, I hope you're here having a wonderful day wherever you are.
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